"Fiscal Rules and Discretion with Risk of Default" (with Chiara Felli and Facundo Piguillem)

Category: Money and Macro Brown Bag Seminar
When: 03 December 2020
, 12:00
 - 13:00
Where: online
Speaker: Liyan Shi (Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance)

It is widely believed that governments tend to over-accumulate debt, which gives rise to the need of fiscal rules. This paper studies the optimal fiscal and default rules when governments can default on their debt obligations. We build a continuous-time model that encompasses the standard rationale for debt over-accumulation: hyperbolic discounting and political economy frictions. In addition, governments are subject to taste shocks, which makes spending optimally random. Since shocks are private information, there is a trade-off between rules and discretion. We derive the optimal fiscal rules which are debt dependent only when default is possible. Depending on the severity of the spending bias and the cost of default, the optimal fiscal rules range from strict debt limits, complemented with strong deficit limits, to the absence of all rules. In intermediate cases, debt-dependent deficit limits must be complemented with default rules, with some areas where default is banned and others where default is mandatory.